Poipoia te Kākano: Nurturing Hope in a Tough Season

The State of the Nation 2026 finds families under pressure and seeds of change taking root, writes Kai Sanders.

The Salvation Army’s State of the Nation 2026, Foundations of Wellbeing | Poipoia te Kākano, translates as ‘Nurture the Seed’. The report itself was launched at multiple venues across the country, including Wellington on Wednesday 11 February, where a packed room of politicians and members of the media and other NGOs heard a clear message at the Loaves and Fishes Hall.

‘Many families are doing everything they can, yet life is getting harder,’ Director of the Social Policy and Parliamentary Unit Dr Bonnie Robinson told attendees. ‘We see resilience every day at the frontline of our services. But resilience is not the same as wellbeing. Systems need to change if we want outcomes to change.’

This year, the report applies the Te Ora o Te Whānau wellbeing framework, recognising that identity, belonging and connection are foundations for a flourishing life. The framework looks at Kawa (intrinsic wellbeing and identity), Tikanga (the structures and systems people must navigate), Ritenga (the choices people make within constrained options), and Āhuatanga (the visible outcomes we measure). Read together, the picture is sobering: child poverty and material hardship are rising, unemployment has increased, and housing instability continues to disrupt education, work and whānau life. Many households still face unaffordable rents or crowded homes, and homelessness—visible and hidden—is increasing.

Positives and negatives

Speaking at the launch, Paul Barber, senior social policy analyst and co-author of the report, emphasised the human scale behind the numbers: ‘Right now, around 156,000 children in Aotearoa New Zealand are living in material hardship, an increase of around 12,000 from the year before. That’s not just a statistic—it’s classrooms, neighbourhoods, it’s tamariki (children) growing up without the basics.’

One of the most concerning findings is the increase in family violence, reaching its highest level since 2018. As a church and movement committed to upholding the dignity of every person, The Salvation Army approaches this reality with humility, compassion and determination.

‘We know the statistics represent people created in the image of God: parents and children, partners and elders, all deserving safety and love. We will continue to stand with survivors, strengthen prevention and support, and advocate for the system changes that reduce stressors and create safer homes. At the same time, it is heartening to see violent crime overall trending down and youth offending continuing to fall—clear signs that community led and preventative approaches work,’ says Bonnie.

There are encouraging seeds being planted in other areas too. Alcohol use has declined steadily over several years, and importantly, drinking among Māori has fallen significantly across the past five years. The report also highlights that rangatahi (young people) learning predominantly in te reo Māori are achieving NCEA at similar levels to non-Māori, showing the power of culturally grounded education.

While illicit drug patterns are mixed—with methamphetamine and cocaine consumption higher than three years ago despite declines in reported use—the overall direction of the report’s positive examples is unmistakable: when identity is strengthened, when whānau connections are restored, and when support is holistic and kaupapa Māori led, harm reduces.

Co-author Charm Skinner, who led the te ao Māori wellbeing analysis, said the data affirms what communities already know: ‘When you strengthen identity, you strengthen outcomes. Māori wellbeing is collective—grounded in whakapapa (lineage), whenua (the land) and whānau. The evidence shows that when systems honour those foundations, whānau can flourish.’

This is the heart of Poipoia te Kākano. Nurturing seeds requires the right conditions: good soil, protection, time and care. So do people. The report reminds us that outcomes are not simply about individual effort; they reflect the design of our systems. When systems uphold dignity in areas like work and income, stable and affordable housing and focusing justice responses on healing and reintegration, the seeds of wellbeing take root.

As Bonnie concluded at the launch, ‘Communities are doing their part. What’s needed now is policy that enables whānau to thrive—not just survive.’

So where to from here?

The report urges long-term investment in prevention, reintegration, affordable housing and culturally grounded wellbeing—with a special focus on reducing child poverty. It challenges all of us to see behaviour not as deficit but as adaptation within constrained choices, and to design systems that widen those choices. It asks us to trust that what works for Māori works for everyone—and to back those solutions with resources, partnership and patience.

As we carry Poipoia te Kākano into the year ahead, let’s pray and act with confidence in the one who tends the garden of our lives. As the Apostle Paul wrote, ‘Let us not grow weary in doing good, for at the proper time we will reap a harvest if we do not give up’ (Galatians 6:9). May we nurture the seeds.